Serbian Elections: A Simple Game

Far from the more pessimistic expectations for the West, the outcome will likely be a simple one: a pro-Western president will be re-elected, a nationalist candidate will remain the strongest opposition leader for the years to come and a conservative prime minister will remain in power until future elections offer him a chance to solidify his position in another coalition.

On December 12, Parliament Speaker Oliver Dulic, a ranking official of the Democratic Party, DS, led by President Boris Tadic, scheduled Serbia’s presidential elections for January 20.

The vote was mandatory since Serbia adopted a new constitution, following the secession of its former federal partner Montenegro from the now-defunct state union.

The move angered the Democrats' coalition partner, the conservative Democratic Party of Serbia, DSS, led by Prime Minister Vojislav Kostunica.

Kostunica’s party delayed its decision whether to participate in the vote or back Tadic for weeks; arguing that the unresolved issue of the breakaway province of Kosovo remained its key priority.

On January 3, the DSS finally turned its back on the pro-western Tadic and threw its support behind Velimir Ilic, Infrastructure Minister and leader of its closest coalition partner, New Serbia, NS.

Nine candidates have entered Serbia’s presidential race. In practice, analysts predict the election will likely be a two-horse race between Tadic and the ultranationalist Tomislav Nikolic, acting leader of the Serbian Radical Party, SRS.

Recent opinion polls show Tadic, who was elected in 2004 for what was meant to be a five-year term, to have a slight advantage over Nikolic, indicating run-off elections on February 3 between the top two candidates to emerge from the first round.

The chances of other candidates, including Ilic and Cedomir Jovanovic, the staunchly pro-Western leader of the Liberal Democratic Party, LDP, entering the run-off are considered slim.

Analysts in Belgrade are confident that manoeuvrings by Kostunica’s party are merely part of an intricate political game aimed at securing positions in the government, which remains poised to survive until the end of its term in late 2010.

The DSS’s backing of Ilic, who shares the same conservative values, will likely reduce Tadic’s first round results. Subsequently, the DS, the strongest party in the ruling coalition, could be susceptible to further political haggling ahead of Serbia’s municipal elections and balloting in the northern Vojvodina province, scheduled for May 11.

“Kostunica is backing Ilic to have a better bargaining chip for the run-off. Tadic may not need all Ilic’s votes, but he might need some of them,” said Dragan Bujosevic, an analyst with Belgrade’s NIN weekly.

He added that Ilic’s NS might make open or tacit backing of Tadic in the run-off conditional on further concessions from Kostunica, such as ministerial seats “or a myriad of things,” including a greater role in future sales of major state-run assets and positions of mayors in important cities.

“This game could cost Kostunica dear,” Bujosevic said, though other observers expect that Tadic and the DS will also have to make concessions.

Most analysts and politicians also believe that Kostunica’s move could have a negative impact on his own supporters and on undecided voters who prefer him to Tadic, but remain opposed to the ultranationalist Nikolic.

“Everyone will now say that Kostunica is an unfaithful coalition partner, and that no one can seriously count on him,” a ranking DS official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said.

"Voters believed that Kostunica and his people are incompetent but honest. With this move they will make people believe that they [the DSS] are incompetent and crooked,” he said.

Another view, expressed by political analyst Nebojsa Spaic of Belgrade’s Spaic & Farmer consultancy, is that Kostunica had no option but to back Ilic.

“He could not openly support Tadic as they are frequently at odds over so many issues. It appears that Kostunica picked Ilic instead, to snatch some votes from the Radicals and then to back Tadic in the runoff,” Spaic said.

Analysts say that the Radicals will have a tough job winning the presidency.

Nikolic has already experienced defeat at the hands of Tadic in the 2004 presidential run-off. In 2006 his party garnered 81 out of 250-seats in parliamentary elections and remained the largest party, but still failed to secure a coalition and form the government.

Meanwhile, the SRS leader, Vojislav Seselj, is on trial for war crimes in The Hague.

Their recent party convention was inconclusive. Apart from demonstrating their pro-Russian standpoint, the SRS delegates proclaimed their opposition to Kosovo’s independence, but fell short of declaring their willingness to engage in armed conflict over the province.

In December, Radical lawmakers also failed to sharpen a parliamentary resolution that called on the government to reject Kosovo’s independence and to review its relations with countries that recognise Kosovo, once its Albanian majority have declared, as expected, their homeland’s independence.

According to Bujosevic, “the warmongering Radicals we have known in the past have changed. They are now practically begging Kostunica to let them join in.”

Nikolic has, however, threatened to end Serbia’s EU bid and has called for tough measures against any country that recognises Kosovo’s declaration of independence. It is partly because of the EU’s willingness to send a police and justice mission in Kosovo to help consolidate its anticipated independence that Serbian nationalists are reaching out to Russia, which has given its unreserved support to Belgrade on the Kosovo issue.

Spaic argues that Nikolic’s electorate “remains firm,” and believes that “they will likely get some votes from disappointed diehards from the Socialist Party of Serbia” once led by the late Yugoslav President, Slobodan Milosevic.

“Most likely Nikolic will not win the run-off, but I would not dare to exclude the opposite outcome,” he said.

Jovanovic, say analysts, will attempt to use the January 20 vote to solidify his Liberal Democratic Party, which split off from the DS. His staunchly pro-Western views and readiness to relinquish Kosovo over Serbia’s European future have few Serbian backers.

“Jovanovic represents one extreme that pushes voters back to Tadic, rather than taking them from him. Most voters are inclined towards the centre of the political spectrum, towards solutions that are acceptable for most,” Bujosevic said.

Regardless of the opposition, Tadic will not have an easy ride. He will need to prove his firm opposition to Kosovo’s independence in exchange for securing the backing of Kostunica and Ilic. At the same time he will have to remain committed to closer ties with the EU, regardless of the outcome of the Kosovo dispute, if Serbia is to benefit from the greater prosperity and stability that European integration promises to bring.

Aleksandar Vasovic is BIRN Serbia Editor. Balkan Insight is BIRN’s online publication.